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Recent Blog Posts

 
July 3, 2012 Market and Strategy Update  
  "The second quarter was the polar opposite of the first quarter from both a market and economic perspective."
   
April 10, 2012 Market and Strategy Update
  "Equity markets, which were starting to price in financial meltdown in Europe, are now pricing in a more optimistic view. Expectations have quickly turned positive with bullish sentiment of stock market forecasters approaching historically high levels."
   
January 6, 2012 From 2011 into 2012
  "Two years ago in this blog we spoke about an expected transition in the markets from excessive risk-taking to one of risk-aversion. That transition is underway and is beginning to provide opportunity."
   
November 21, 2011 Eurozone Issues
  “As we constantly review our portfolios in light of what is happening in the world around us, we continue to conclude that we are comfortable being positioned as we are.”
   
August 9, 2011 A Few Thoughts
  The sell-off over the last few days has been swift and relentless. Given the risks to the economy that we have discussed in past blog posts, perhaps these levels in the market are more reasonable and offer a healthier investment environment for the future. However, such a sell-off is disconcerting and requires our full attention.”
   
August 2, 2011 Policy Makers to the Rescue
  Every new policy prescription from Washington has appeared only to be a red herring, diverting attention from the issues and giving investors hope without justification.
   
February 4, 2011 Deflation and Ham 'n Eggs
  Recap of a presentation made by Peter Falker to a business professionals' group about debt deflation and quantitative easing.
   
December 20, 2010 Too Conservative?
  During the last year, we have patiently developed a portfolio designed to bring consistent, compounding returns over several years..
   
August 25th, 2010 Confronting the Boogieman
  (Why the Economy Isn't Growing)
  If we are confused by the current progress of recovery, it is because we are simply not wired for this environment. It’s very hard to grow when credit is contracting.
   
August 16th, 2010 General Motors IPO - A Financial Opinion
  In my opinion, it is too soon for the company to be selling stock.
May 26, 2010
 
Investors are finally appreciating risk again. We welcome this change.
 
May 11, 2010 Living in the Land of Oz
  The curtain has been pulled back. The Wizard has been revealed.
 
May 7, 2010
 
Managing a portfolio that balances the goals of generating wealth and protecting capital will continue to serve our clients well as investors become more familiar with the changing character of markets
March 22, 2010
 
China creates seemingly endless GDP growth, yet without a real price, they likely destroy value and hide losses.
 
February 1, 2010
 
We are being careful to safely navigate the challenges that will come to define the era in which we live.
 
November 4, 2009
 
Today there are some important potential inflection points that may reverse trends that have been at work for several decades. The typical Pavlovian response in markets to take risk in the presence of easy money, big government spending, and a declining dollar might be, at the very least, somewhat premature.
 
 
July 21, 2009

It’s time for an economics review. While this risks putting you to sleep, it’s essential that we keep a level and clear perspective on where we are today. It is also reasonable to question whether or not the extreme conditions we are witnessing should portend greater challenges ahead.
 
 
 
June 3, 2009  
 
GM (as well as Chrysler) has destroyed so much capital that private investment capital is no longer available, thereby necessitating an unprecedented government nationalization of the company, outside of the capitalist system, to save thousands of jobs
 
 
 
 
May 27, 2009  
 
We believe it is dangerous to draw the conclusion that a new long-term bull market, based on a substantial economic recovery, has begun.
 
 
 
 
March 4, 2009  
 
While Buffett may have been too early in his call for stocks, given the unprecedented nature of this crisis, we would rather be slightly late and more certain.
 
 
 
 
November 11, 2008  
  There are times, such as we face now, when the reaction is so extreme, the fallout so difficult, and the appetite for risk so diminished that financial memory will impede a return to excessive, leverage-driven speculation for a very long time.